2013年11月17日日曜日

Role of EIS and Risk Aversion

http://www.lse.ac.uk/finance/prospectiveStudents/phdFinance/files09/Job_Market_Paper_Aytek_Malkhozov.pdf
Malkhozov and Samloo (2009) "Asset Prices in a News Driven Real Business Cycle Model"

<quote>
Lets first consider a Lucas-tree economy. A positive shock to expected consumption growth (or a negative shock to uncertainty) increases wealth to consumption ratio, which adjusts through movements in wealth since consumption is exogenous. This adjustment depends on the size of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. If the substitution effect dominates the wealth effect, i.e. elasticity of intertemporal substitution is greater than one, the agent would like to hold more of the asset, thus driving prices up. Otherwise (when elasticity of intertemporal substitution is less than 1) the agent prefers bringing the increase in consumption forward, depressing prices.

How does this matter for risk premia? Shocks to expected consumption growth affect expected future returns to wealth. The agent with relative risk aversion greater than 1 wants to hedge against these changes in the investment opportunity set (and bet on them if relative risk aversion is less than one). Notice that relative risk aversion and inverse of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are comparable measures of propensity to smooth consumption across states and time respectively. Therefore if the two are equal (CRRA case) the changes in wealth-consumption ratio exactly offset the hedging demand. With Epstein-Zin preferences there can be a wedge between relative risk aversion and the inverse of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution which will translate into premia. As an example, consider an agent with both elasticity of intertemporal substitution and relative risk aversion greater than 1, exposed to a positive shock to expected consumption growth. The intertemporal substitution effect drives up asset prices. The hedging demand effect would imply that the agent wants his portfolio to depreciate. Therefore a premium is required for the agent to hold the asset in equilibrium. If consumption and dividends are correlated the results for the pricing of aggregate risk carry forward to the risk premium for the claim on aggregate dividends. Recursive preferences are crucial for this mechanism.
<unquote>

0 件のコメント:

コメントを投稿